Macro tailwinds continue to drive the market, with stainless steel futures continuing to challenge the 13,000 yuan/mt threshold [SMM Stainless Steel Futures Weekly Review]

SMM data shows that the most-traded SS contract has strengthened and risen this week. As of 10:30 on August 8, the SS2509 contract was quoted at 12,985 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt WoW.

Macro perspective, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have gradually heated up, with US non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations. This has strengthened market expectations for a September interest rate cut, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. Against this backdrop, non-ferrous metals (including nickel and stainless steel) priced in US dollars have received some support. However, global trade frictions (such as Trump's announcement of tariff increases on India) still pose a constraint on upside room. Domestically, liquidity support has intensified, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 700 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on August 8, with a three-month term, aiming to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system. This move is expected to boost market expectations for infrastructure and manufacturing, indirectly supporting stainless steel demand.

From a fundamental analysis, the driving effect of macro tailwinds on the stainless steel market continues to manifest. Spot stainless steel quotes remain on an upward trend, with trading conditions gradually shaking off the previous sluggishness during the week. Despite being in the traditional consumption off-season, downstream demand still maintains a wait-and-see sentiment, with relatively limited acceptance of high prices. However, with traders offering discounts, trading conditions have significantly improved. Nevertheless, the market remains significantly influenced by macro policy factors, with considerable uncertainty prevailing and a generally cautious wait-and-see attitude. The SS futures have repeatedly attempted to break through the 13,000 yuan/mt threshold but have failed to hold steady. Subsequent trends still require close attention to policy developments and the specific situation of demand recovery.